The Israel-Hamas conflict has thrown a wrench into President Joe Biden's meticulously planned Middle East strategy. The Biden administration had been quietly pursuing two significant policy goals: brokering Israeli-Saudi détente and containing Iran's nuclear ambitions. However, with the recent infiltration of Palestinian Hamas militants from Gaza into Israeli territories, a crisis has unfolded that threatens to reshape the administration's approach to the Middle East. This has also pushed President Biden into an uneasy alliance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a situation that carries political risks as the President seeks re-election in 2024.
The unexpected attack by Hamas, designated a terrorist group by the United States, has not only dashed hopes of brokering a landmark normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia but has also complicated the administration's stance towards Iran, Hamas' longtime benefactor. While U.S. officials claim that their efforts to establish ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia can survive the crisis, many experts hold a more pessimistic view.
In the words of Jon Alterman, head of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Quite simply, all efforts at normalization are on hold for the foreseeable future," contradicting the official U.S. government line. This crisis has stalled the prospect of uniting Washington's two most powerful allies in the region to counter the influence of Tehran and Beijing in the Gulf.
With the Middle East on edge, the Biden administration is now focusing on aiding Israel in defending itself. The crisis has raised concerns about the neglect of the Palestinians' quest for statehood within the U.S. diplomatic efforts to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, as pointed out by Khaled Elgindy, a former Palestinian negotiations adviser.
Hamas's attack not only sends a message that the Palestinians cannot be ignored if Israel seeks security but also threatens to derail Saudi Arabia's recent warming of relations with Iran. U.S. officials contend that the timing is not right for resuming long-suspended Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, largely due to the intransigence of both sides.
Looking ahead, Riyadh may return to the negotiating table for U.S. security guarantees to safeguard against Iran. The Biden administration might strive to keep the option of Palestinian statehood alive, even as it assists Israel in its conflict with Hamas. However, Netanyahu's resistance to compromises, coupled with the rising death toll and hostage crisis, makes the situation more challenging.
"The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades," noted U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, just over a week ago, signaling a shift in the administration's priorities. Biden's aides working on the Israeli-Saudi normalization effort were caught off guard by the Hamas onslaught. The initiative had already faced scrutiny in Congress due to concerns about Saudi Arabia's human rights record.
The crisis has forced the U.S. into deeper engagement in the Middle East, with President Biden pledging additional military support for Israel to prevent the conflict from escalating regionally. The immediate challenge is to prevent Iran-backed Hezbollah from opening a second front on Israel's northern border.
The administration has been disappointed by Saudi Arabia's failure to denounce the Hamas attack, further complicating the situation. On the other hand, the United Arab Emirates, along with Bahrain, which recognized Israel in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, labeled the Hamas attack a "grave escalation."
In the aftermath of the attack, the U.S. may need to reevaluate its approach to Iran, which, while lauding the Hamas assault, denies direct involvement. Analysts speculate that Iran may become more emboldened in its "shadow war" with Israel, viewing the administration as less willing to engage in military conflict. This situation could have far-reaching implications, including potential threats to U.S. interests in the region.
The recent prisoner swap with Iran and the unfreezing of Iranian funds for humanitarian purposes have also drawn Republican criticism, adding to the complexities of the Biden administration's Middle East policy.